MS-01: Runoff Results Open Thread

11:18 PM: The AP has called the runoffs for Travis Childers (D) and Greg Davis (R), who will face off on April 22nd in the special election primary to replace Roger Wicker. (Update: As per RBH in the comments below, Davis and Childers will face other nominal challengers on the 22nd.  If no candidate earns a majority, there will be a May 13 runoff.)

No joke about it: at a PVI of R+10, this is a pretty conservative district.  But perhaps it was premature to call this one a completely safe Republican hold.  With 100% of precincts reporting,  36,168 voters cast ballots in the Democratic run-off, while 33,135 GOP ballots were counted — a net turnout advantage of 3000 votes for Democrats.  And let’s not forget, while the Dem primary was a civil affair, the same cannot be said about the Republican battle:

But Davis, in the campaign’s final week, has attempted to make McCullough’s tenure at the TVA a major issue in the campaign. One of his latest ads accuses McCullough of laying off workers, raising electric rates and lavish spending while serving as chairman of the board.

“Sometimes the truth hurts. The fact that he made those expenditures while laying off people was a bad decision, in my mind,” said Davis. “While he was laying off people at TVA, we were creating 10,000 jobs here in Southaven.”

McCullough has called Davis’ allegations a negative smear and vigorously defended his record in an interview with Politico. McCullough said he increased rates only once during his tenure and brought economic development to the region.

“He’s smearing my lifestyle and character. People who know me and people who investigate me know that what he’s saying on television is not true,” McCullough said. “It’s what people do when they’re behind and they’re desperate.”

If Childers has enough funds to ride this one out, this one could be interesting.

10:25 PM: With 91% of precincts reporting, 33,440 Democratic votes and 31,551 GOP votes have tallied.

10:10 PM: A turnout update: With 79% of precincts reporting, 30,165 Democratic ballots have been cast, while 29,423 GOP votes have been tallied.  I’d say that this is an encouraging sign for Travis Childers.

10:06 PM: With 79% in, looks like Childers has this one wrapped up with a 3800 vote lead.  The GOP race still looks tight: Davis is leading by less than 700 votes.

9:55 PM: With 70% in, Childers is up by 56%-44% and 3000 votes.  Davis has a 4% lead in the GOP results.

9:39 PM: With 49% in, it’s Childers 54%, Holland 46%.  Southaven Mayor Greg Davis has a 400  vote lead over former TVA Chair Glenn McCullough in the GOP runoff.

9:28 PM: With 29% of precincts reporting, Childers has taken the lead by a 53%-47% margin.

9:19 PM: With 22% reporting, Childers has closed the gap to 90 votes.

9:17 PM: Just to take the pulse of the turnout so far, with 19% of precincts reporting, 8998 voters have cast their ballots in the Democratic primary, while only 5144 GOP ballots have been cast.

UPDATE (9:05 Eastern): With 14% of precincts in, it’s Holland 54%, Childers 46%.

Polls are closed in the runoff election to determine the Democratic and Republican nominees for the special election to replace GOP Rep. Roger Wicker in Mississippi.  This is an R+10 district, but it will be interesting to see if the high Dem turnout from last month’s primary will continue into the runoff.

The Northeast Mississippi Daily Journal has the results.  So far, it looks like state Rep. Steve Holland has a 56%-44% lead over Prentiss County Chancery Clerk Travis Childers for the Dem nod with 10% of precincts reporting.

The Politico offers some local color:

Some statewide Republicans warn that if Childers prevails, he could offer a credible challenge to the party’s nominee, despite the district’s strong Republican tilt. Childers campaigned as a conservative Democrat with a record that at times appears indistinguishable from the Republicans’ agenda. And he has a strong network of support among the legal community in the rural parts of the district.

“He’s more conservative than 85 percent of Republicans,” said one state GOP operative. “He’s a good old boy and a strong candidate.”

And while the 1st District has been reliably Republican, Democrats have shown the ability to win here: Former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove carried the district in 1999.

30 thoughts on “MS-01: Runoff Results Open Thread”

  1. First off, regarding the comment saying he’s more conservative than 85% of Republicans?  I call BS.

    http://www.djournal.com/pages/…

    Q: What should Congress do in response to rising health care costs and the large number of uninsured adults and children?

    CHILDERS: First, there is not enough emphasis on preventative health care. This year Congress passed an expansion of the children’s health care program, so that is a good start. One problem in Washington is that special interests like pharmaceutical companies stop health care reform or measures to reduce the cost of prescription medicine. I will fight for Mississippi families struggling to get affordable health care, not for drug company special interests.

    Q: What do you see as the most viable solution to keep entitlement programs such as Social Security and Medicare financially sound for the long term?

    CHILDERS: I am deeply committed to improving the lives of our senior citizens. Care for our seniors is a passion that my family and I share. It was that commitment to our seniors that led my family and I to purchase and renovate the old high building in our hometown into a badly needed, state-of-the-art assisted living facility, so seniors in our community could live out their lives close to home. As congressman, I will fight to protect Social Security, oppose privatization and expand in-home care programs for seniors.  

    Q: What specifically should congressional policy be on illegal immigration?

    CHILDERS: Illegal immigration is a serious problem, and the president and Congress have had us headed in the wrong direction on this issue for many years. First, we need to get control of the border, not only as a matter of immigration policy but as a matter of national security.  Second, we need to crack down on the businesses and corporations that exploit illegal workers. Third, we need to stop giving illegal immigrants government benefits. Finally, we need to send illegal immigrants who are convicted criminals back home for good. I oppose amnesty for illegal immigrants.

    He doesn’t sound very conservative to me.  Maybe these just aren’t the right issues, but hell.  I’ll take him over the Rethug here.  

    Also, which Repub. do we want to win?

  2. Local papers here have called the Democratic race for Childers.  The Republican race has about 200 votes between the McCullough and Davis.  

  3. Well, the race will now be between Travis Childers and Greg Davis.  I was expecting Glen McCullough to win the race, so there goes my prediction.

    With Davis in the race, I’d still give the Republicans an edge in the district.  Chilers is a great candidate so I wouldn’t count him out 100%.  Davis better not rest on his laurels, however.

  4. our guy is Justice Louis Butler, conservatives are running judge Mike Gableman.  

    http://www.wispolitics.com/ind…

    31% reporting

    50% Butler

    50% Gableman

    We’ve been trending upward, so I’m optimistic, and the money is on Butler to hold his seat.  Another ugly WI supreme court race though.  No different than last year.  I can’t wait till we can win the assembly back in 2008 and get public financed Supreme court elections.  

  5. Milwaukee Journal Sentinel calls it for Gableman.

    Gableman 51% 400,310

    Butler 49% 379,556

  6. since the turnout for Holland in Lee County probably cost McCullough the primary.

    The AP has called the runoffs for Travis Childers (D) and Greg Davis (R), who will face off on April 22nd in the special election to replace Roger Wicker.

    Not quite.. it’s an open primary, and the field will probably be Davis, Childers, Wally Pang (an independent Republican) and a Green Party candidate. I would expect Holland and McCullough to either drop out now, or stop campaigning.

    So if nobody wins a majority on the 22nd, we go to a runoff in May.

    But this is winnable. I hope that Tupelo supporters of Holland or McCullough can get behind Childers over Davis.

      1. I’ll go with Davis then.  He has raised about 113K less than the other guy.  As of March 12, 2008.  

      2. his base is DeSoto Co.(suburban Memphis), which is only 1/7 of the population of the district, while McCullough’s base is the more rural majority of the district.  Childers’ (the apparent Democratic winner) base is also the rural expanse of the district.  So, if Childers is our nominee, while Davis is the Republican nominee, we could be in for a competitive race here.

  7. CHILDERS FOR CONGRESS

    FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE                                                                        

    Tuesday, April 1, 2008                                                                                

    Travis Childers Wins Runoff Election With 57%

    Showing District-Wide Strength

    Mississippi Hot With Democratic Intensity

    Booneville, Miss. Prentiss County Chancery Clerk and businessman Travis Childers tonight became the Democratic nominee for Congress in Mississippi’s 1st Congressional District with a victory that demonstrated district-wide support.

    Childers won with 57 percent to State Representative Steve Holland’s 43 percent.

    “I want to congratulate Steve Holland on an excellent campaign,” Childers said tonight. “Now, we will unify the Democratic Party and set our sights on victory in the special general election and then in November. I will continue my focus on the tough times being faced by families here in North Mississippi and tell them that with Travis Childers in Congress help will be on the way.”

    For the second time in three weeks, Travis Childers received more votes than any candidate on the ballot – Democrat or Republican. With 99 percent of precincts reporting, Childers had 20,642 votes and Holland had 15,372. The Republican nominee had only 16,816 votes.

    “I feel we are seeing history unfold before our eyes in Mississippi,” Childers said. “There is a strong sense that the time has come for change and that we need to have a new focus on the challenges faced by working people and small businesses in the halls of Congress.”

    “I have a simple message for the people of North Mississippi: With Travis Childers in Congress, help is on the way,” Childers said. “I believe the time has come for us to attack the very real problems that Mississippi families face every day. Gas prices are eating families and businesses alive. The cost of food, shelter, health care and medicine are escalating even as jobs are being shipped overseas.”

    Childers won with a relentless focus on economic issues and by connecting to the views and values of the people of the 1st District. Childers carried almost every county in the district including 91 percent of the vote in Prentiss County where he makes his home. Childers also won 83 percent of the vote in Alcorn County, 67 percent of the vote in Chickasaw County, and more than 80 percent of the vote in Panola County. Childers also ran up impressive victories in DeSoto, Marshall and Union Counties.

    “I pledge to the people of North Mississippi that I will take their concerns onto the floor of the United States Congress every day. I will work with Republicans and Democrats to get things done for the people of North Mississippi,” Childers said.

    # # # # #

    1. have an open thread or an open election diary.  I figured this was the next closest thing.  A thread where people were following election results.  

      1. Davis was the early front runner, but the GOP primary became pretty nasty — so either candidate might be banged up a little.  Will it be enough to make this one interesting?  I’m not sure.

  8. FWIW, a Democratic victory in this seat would give them a 3-1 edge within the Mississippi delegation.  The last time Democrats had an edge within the Mississippi House delegation was following the 2000 election (3-2).  When Congressional reapportionment reduced Mississippi from 5 seats to 4, one of the Democrats was the odd man out.

  9. 1)Best chance in a generation to take a seat in MS.

    2)A win or even a close loss would give momentum to the Musgrove campaign

    3)GOP will be forced to spend money it doesn’t have to defend a seat that should be their anyway.  

    4)Because of number 3, GOP will have less money for the November races.

    5) A win in a Deep South Red district would be a news story in itself.

    6) A win after the IL-14 Hastert pickup would get media buzzing on the specials being a forerunner to the general.

    7) If the LA Shreveport district also flips, that would be THREE consecutive flips.  There is NO WAY that would not get the media or at least the political media chatting up major doomsday scenarios for the GOP in November.

    Democrats do not need to pass this up.  It my be a long shot but the payoff could be huge.      

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